Overview
- New modeling projects Antarctica alone raises global mean sea level about 0.1 meters by 2100 and roughly 1 meter by 2200 under a moderate-emissions pathway, with much larger increases under high emissions.
- Sea levels are expected to fall near Antarctica as the ice loses gravitational pull, while the largest rises occur in the Indian, Pacific, and western Atlantic basins.
- Regions flagged for outsized impacts include island nations in the Caribbean and central Pacific and densely populated low-lying coasts such as parts of India and Bangladesh and the U.S. East Coast.
- A separate Nature Geoscience study identifies energetic vortices under ice shelves that can draw warm deep water upward and accelerate basal melting, a mechanism supported by limited observations and requiring more monitoring.
- Recent observations show grounding-line retreat up to about 2,300 feet per year and continuing sea-ice loss that removes a protective buffer, pointing to faster pathways for ice loss even as key uncertainties remain.