Aneel Raises National Electricity Tariff Projection to 8.6%

Higher CDE subsidies plus a weaker hydrological cycle have pushed the projection above inflation, leaving relief amounts and timing decisions to the regulator's pending actions.

Overview

Aneel's second InfoTarifas bulletin raised the average electricity-bill projection to 8.6%, an update published Friday that exceeds expected inflation and revises an earlier 8% forecast.
The agency says the increase is driven mainly by larger charges from the Conta de Desenvolvimento Energético (CDE) and a less favorable 2025/2026 hydrological cycle that raises generation costs.
Law-backed repurposing of Uso do Bem Público (UBP) receipts will give targeted discounts to consumers served by 22 distributors in Sudam and Sudene areas, but outlets report different totals for the funds to be applied (reports range from R$3.1 billion to R$5.5 billion).
Aneel is also advancing rulemaking that could change the Itaipu bonus timetable from July to August and propose a fixed monthly charge for low-voltage customers with suggested rates and possible 2028 implementation; both actions await board approval or consultation outcomes.
The bulletin details sector finance points for readers: Aneel forecasts the CDE at R$47.8 billion for 2026, the agency's 'subsidiômetro' shows roughly R$55 billion in subsidies in the prior 12 months, and the unsubsidized residential rate (B1) averages about R$851 per MWh before taxes.