Overview
- On Friday Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by‑election campaign in Ashton‑in‑Makerfield and told supporters a vote for him would ‘change Labour’.
- A Survation poll published on Saturday showed a tight contest with Burnham on 43% and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon on 40%, making the 18 June vote highly competitive.
- Reform UK’s recent sweep of 24 of 25 Wigan council seats has given the party strong local momentum and turned a once-safe Labour seat into a two‑horse race.
- If Burnham wins he would re‑enter Parliament but must then secure 81 Labour MP nominations to trigger a formal leadership ballot and Keir Starmer says he will not resign if that happens.
- Markets and bookmakers have reacted to the contest as politically consequential and voters are focusing on local pledges such as a youth centre and tougher policing as the campaign goes to the wire.