Overview
- Andalusia votes Sunday, with most forecasts pointing to a win for Juanma Moreno’s People’s Party and a possible outright majority that would let it govern without Vox.
- The Socialist Party faces losses, and María Jesús Montero’s troubled campaign — including calling two Guardia Civil deaths a “work accident” — has fueled doubts about her standing in the region.
- Adelante Andalucía has climbed in the final week and could overtake Por Andalucía, according to recent polls and internal party tracking that show a close fight.
- Ahead of a planned reboot of the national alternative left, a ‘sorpasso’ — one rival overtaking another — by Adelante would undercut Por Andalucía (IU–Sumar–Podemos) and complicate who leads that refoundation, with Yolanda Díaz notably absent from the trail.
- Analysts cast the vote as a laboratory for Spain’s next moves, testing whether the PP can break from Vox after past deals in regions like Extremadura and Castilla y León and revealing how fragmented, regional forces shape the left’s future.