Overview
- In mid-May, Bubblemaps published on-chain analysis showing nine linked Polymarket accounts placed about 80 Iran-related bets and netted roughly $2.4 million with an exceptionally high 98% win rate.
- The accounts correctly forecasted the timing of U.S. strikes, the reported removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and a ceasefire, and sometimes placed very small losing bets that investigators say likely aimed to avoid detection.
- Bubblemaps traced funds flowing off Polymarket through crypto exchanges including Bybit, with additional activity at Binance and HTX, but the real-world owners of the accounts remain unidentified without exchange cooperation.
- Polymarket says it has hired Chainalysis for enhanced monitoring, while the CFTC, the Justice Department, and several lawmakers have intensified probes and are weighing new limits or bans on war-related contracts.
- The case follows an April indictment of Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke for using classified information to win on Polymarket and highlights growing worries that prediction-market trades can create national security risks and ripple into traditional markets.