Overview
- Wall Street recalibrated forecasts ahead of Adobe’s Sept. 10 fiscal Q3 2026 report, with consensus expecting $6.08 earnings per share and $6.69 billion in revenue.
- RBC Capital raised its price target to $315 and expects Adobe to beat the FactSet-tracked $27.47 billion ARR, while Barclays lifted its target to $295 and models $400 million in net new ARR for Q3.
- Not all brokers are bullish: Morgan Stanley downgraded Adobe to Underweight and set a $240 target, citing the risk that AI features could reduce Creative Cloud’s recurring revenue.
- Market-wide sentiment remains mixed — TipRanks-derived average price target sits at $260.98, implying roughly 7% downside from recent trading levels.
- Analysts say ARR is the key metric investors will watch and they warn that a heavier freemium mix, AI substitution or a leadership announcement could meaningfully move guidance and the stock on earnings day.