Overview
- Commentators report growing public and media willingness to imagine life after Vladimir Putin as his domestic and international isolation increases.
- Experts warn the highly personalized power vertical Putin built since 2000 may not survive him because key institutions and elites owe their authority to his personal control.
- Most analysts expect power to be split among rival clans, security services, the military, and regional leaders such as the Chechen authorities rather than coalescing around a single successor.
- A weakened, factional Russia would likely have fewer resources and less political will to sustain the war in Ukraine or conduct widespread hybrid operations in Europe, giving Kyiv and European states time to shore up defenses.
- Commentary disputes fears that collapse would raise the chance of nuclear use and notes a contrasting concern that Russia has no clear, younger cohort ready to manage a smooth transition.