Overview
- Project Pluto’s Bill Gray, whose forecast was published Monday, says the tumbling Falcon 9 stage is likely to strike near the Moon’s Einstein crater around 06:44 UTC on August 5, 2026.
- The object is the 45-foot upper stage from a Jan. 15, 2025 Falcon 9 that carried Firefly’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Hakuto-R missions from Kennedy Space Center.
- It travels in a stretched 26-day Earth orbit that swings beyond lunar distance, which allows the booster’s path to intersect the Moon’s path.
- Small pushes from sunlight on the spinning hardware introduce uncertainty in the exact time and location, and continued observations are expected to tighten the prediction.
- The impact should carve a new crater with no risk to people, and NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter may later photograph the site as agencies weigh better disposal for upper stages.