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Analysis Finds One in Four 2026 World Cup Matches Likely to Breach Heat-Safety Thresholds

Researchers link the higher odds to climate change.

Overview

  • World Weather Attribution, which published new modeling Thursday, estimates roughly 25% of the 104 matches will see a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of at least 26°C and about five could reach 28°C, with WBGT blending heat, humidity, sun and wind to show strain on the body.
  • Hotspots include Miami and Kansas City, and the final at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium carries about a one-in-eight chance of 26°C WBGT and roughly a one-in-37 chance of 28°C.
  • FIFPRO sets 26°C WBGT as the level to trigger cooling measures and advises postponement at 28°C, and 20 experts have urged FIFA to adopt longer breaks and clear rules for delaying or moving games.
  • FIFA says it will use a tiered heat plan with three-minute hydration breaks, real-time WBGT monitoring, climate‑controlled benches and added cooling for spectators when forecasts show elevated heat.
  • Scientists warn spectators face the greatest risk outside cooled venues during travel, queuing and outdoor fan festivals, and they urge shade, free water, misting, transport planning and robust on‑site medical teams.