Analysis Finds 2026 House Map No More Republican Than 2018

Overview

• The analysis published July 27, 2026 by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and reported by Political Wire and Election Law Blog finds the finalized 2026 House map is not more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 midterm-era map and may be slightly less favorable.
• Key measures driving that conclusion include a median House district that now votes less Republican on presidential measures and a smaller count of districts that voted to the right of the national presidential vote.
• Republicans nevertheless improved the map compared with the 2024 lines by prevailing in this cycle’s broad redistricting fights, which reduced some immediate GOP vulnerabilities created after 2024.
• The number of plausible Democratic targets on the 2026 map is about the same as in 2018, and Sabato’s team notes that applying historical win rates to the new map still produces a Democratic path to a House majority.
• Practical effects include likely changes to both parties’ target lists and resource plans, with the caveat that voter shifts and campaign dynamics since 2018 will also shape actual 2026 outcomes.