Overview
- The article forecasts a temporary lull in PLA air and naval operations near Taiwan in the run-up to the April Trump–Xi summit.
- From September 2025 to January 2026, tracking cited by the piece counted 1,928 Chinese aircraft near Taiwan, with over 60% crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line.
- December’s unannounced Justice Mission 2025 drill involved up to 130 aircraft, including 90 median-line crossings, plus 17 navy ships and notable coast guard presence.
- Coordinated Chinese fishing fleets massed on Dec. 25 (about 2,900 boats in a 290-mile L-shape) and Jan. 11 (about 1,400 boats in a 200-mile rectangle), signaling a larger gray-zone tactic.
- PLA activity dipped below average in the week before and after Trump’s Oct. 30 meeting with Xi, then returned to typical levels, suggesting any pre-summit restraint may be brief.