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Ampol Forecasts A$1.6bn First‑Half Gain After Middle East Supply Shock

Higher refiner margins from Middle East shipping disruptions drove the uplift.

Overview

  • Ampol said it expects about A$1.6 billion in first‑half underlying earnings, roughly a 150% rise from a year earlier, driven by stronger refining margins.
  • The company reported an average refiner margin of US$28.26 a barrel for the half and said refinery output rose about 8.7% while Australian fuel sales increased 2.8%.
  • Ampol and other importers linked the margin boost to tightened tanker flows through key choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and the wider regional conflict that pushed crude prices above US$100 a barrel at their peak.
  • The Lytton refinery will undergo major maintenance next month that Ampol expects will reduce production by about 300 million litres through October, but the company says it has physical supply arrangements for most of the third quarter.
  • Federal fuel excise relief worth 16¢ a litre is due to end this Sunday and could push pump prices higher if global supply pressure persists, underscoring risks from Australia’s limited domestic refining capacity.