Overview
- American Express shares are down about 21% year to date, compared with roughly a 4% decline for the S&P 500.
- Investor worry centers on agentic AI potentially routing purchases over lower-cost rails, including stablecoins, which could pressure fee revenue.
- Counterarguments highlight the stickiness of AmEx’s rewards ecosystem and the utility of credit, which offers delayed repayment and benefits that AI-driven cost cutting may not replace quickly.
- The recent slide has compressed the stock’s valuation from a price-to-earnings ratio near 25.6 three months ago to about 19.5.
- Management reported 2025 net revenue of $72.2 billion, up 10% year over year, and is targeting long-run revenue growth of 10% or more with mid-teens annual EPS increases.