Overview
- The stock fell 12.3% in February and trades about 20% below its record, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
- The pullback followed a viral argument that AI shopping agents will favor the lowest-cost payment rails—potentially sidelining premium cards and boosting alternatives like stablecoins—and headlines about Block planning roughly 40% workforce cuts for AI efficiencies.
- American Express posted 16% EPS growth in Q4 2025 and is guiding for about 10% revenue growth and at least $17.90 in EPS for 2026.
- The company also raised its dividend and issued no new negative updates in February, underscoring that the slide reflected sentiment rather than fresh operational setbacks.
- Commentary counters the AI threat by pointing to AmEx’s spend‑centric ecosystem—$9.9 billion in Q4 merchant discount revenue, high-fee cardholders, and perks-rich partnerships—that would be difficult to displace quickly.