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American Airlines Holds Profit Outlook Despite $4 Billion Fuel Shock

Strong premium bookings are cushioning the carrier’s guidance against a large surge in jet-fuel costs.

An American Airlines Airbus A321-200 plane takes off from Los Angeles International airport (LAX) in Los Angeles, California, U.S. March 28, 2018. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

Overview

  • At a Bernstein investor conference on Wednesday, May 27, CEO Robert Isom reaffirmed the airline’s full-year profit forecast and said second-quarter bookings were roughly 80% complete.
  • The carrier warned last month that higher jet-fuel prices would raise its fuel bill by more than $4 billion and had already trimmed its 2026 profit range.
  • Isom said demand is uneven with wealthier travelers spending more, corporate travel up 13% year over year, and management forecasting second-quarter revenue growth near 15% on about 5% more capacity.
  • The sudden liquidation of Spirit Airlines has produced an immediate lift in American’s basic-economy bookings as low-cost capacity exits the market.
  • Markets and analysts responded positively with shares up about 2–3% and UBS raising its AAL price target to $18, though fuel-price volatility remains the main downside risk to the outlook.