Overview
- Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange hit $3,544 a tonne on Monday, then eased to about $3,385 on Tuesday after President Trump suggested the war may end soon.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, blocking Gulf metal exports and the seaborne inflow of alumina for smelters that typically hold only three to four weeks of raw materials.
- Producers have begun emergency measures, with Aluminium Bahrain declaring force majeure on deliveries and Qatar’s Qatalum initiating a controlled shutdown because of natural gas shortages.
- Workarounds via the Red Sea, the Cape of Good Hope, or UAE ports on the Gulf of Oman would extend voyages and lift insurance and freight costs while straining limited handling capacity.
- With Gulf output near 8% of global supply and inventories tight, analysts expect prices to remain elevated and say a prolonged disruption could drive levels toward $3,700–$4,000.