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Alphabet’s Big AI Bet Fuels Record Profit but Pushes Cash Flow Into the Red

The company is raising 2026 capital spending while reported investment gains inflate GAAP profit, a shift that has rattled investors and drawn an EU fine.

Overview

  • Alphabet reported Q2 results on July 22 that showed $112.1 billion in net income, a surge driven largely by about $98 billion in unrealized gains on equity investments rather than operating cash.
  • Google Cloud revenue grew 82% to $24.8 billion and its contracted backlog climbed to $514 billion, a level that represents signed customer commitments but not immediate cash receipts.
  • Management raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion–$205 billion and spent $44.9 billion in Q2 on data centers, chips, and servers, producing the company’s first quarterly negative free cash flow of roughly $5.8–$5.9 billion.
  • Markets reacted sharply with Alphabet shares sliding about 7–8% after the report and analysts flagging concerns over the timing of returns, even as some banks kept buy ratings citing cloud traction and margin expansion.
  • The push to own the full AI stack is benefiting suppliers and tightening hardware supply, but it brings risks including faster depreciation of assets, higher debt and financing needs, and a roughly €890 million EU Digital Markets Act fine that adds regulatory pressure.