Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Alaska Air Posts Modest Q4, Issues Wide 2026 Outlook as January Demand Rebounds

Guidance reflects fuel volatility and seasonality after 2025's demand shock, with corporate bookings roughly 20% higher to start January.

Overview

  • Alaska Air Group reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.6 billion, a GAAP pretax margin of 0.8%, and adjusted earnings of $0.43 per share as RASM rose 0.6% year over year.
  • The company forecast 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $6.50 and projected a first-quarter adjusted loss per share between $0.50 and $1.50.
  • Management said early January bookings and yields strengthened, with first-quarter corporate bookings about 20% above last year, though $50–$100 million of potential revenue was missed because much of Q1 was pre-booked.
  • Alaska and Hawaiian now operate under a single certificate, and the group began selling SeattleLondon and SeattleRome flights alongside multi-currency sales and Japanese, Korean, and Italian-language websites.
  • Executives highlighted fuel as a major earnings swing factor given West Coast refining margins, citing Q4 economic fuel at $2.57 per gallon and estimating a 10-cent move can shift annual EPS by roughly $0.75.