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Airline Recovery Firms as American Lifts Outlook, Southwest Targets Record Quarter, Alaska Trims Forecast

Capacity cuts have restored pricing power through stronger premium demand.

Overview

  • American Airlines posted a GAAP Q3 net loss of $114 million on record revenue of $13.69 billion but raised guidance to $0.45–$0.75 adjusted EPS for Q4 and $0.65–$0.95 for full-year 2025.
  • American reported momentum in higher-yield segments, with loyalty accounts up about 7%, co-branded credit card spending up roughly 9%, and unit revenue turning positive in September.
  • Southwest delivered adjusted EPS of $0.11 on $6.95 billion in Q3 revenue and forecasts Q4 unit revenues up 1%–3% year over year with about 6% higher capacity, saying it expects an all-time quarterly revenue record.
  • Alaska Air Group cut its 2025 profit outlook to at least $2.40 per share and guided Q4 adjusted EPS to at least $0.40, citing higher West Coast fuel costs and operational disruptions, though it expects positive unit revenues in Q4.
  • Analysts and carriers point to industry capacity discipline and resilient premium sales as key drivers of improved guidance even as fuel volatility, weather, air-traffic constraints, and IT outages remain risks.