Overview
- AIReF published its ruling on May 29, 2026 that Spain formally meets the EU‑linked pension 'rule of spending' because net pension outlays average 13.0% of GDP between 2022 and 2050, below the 13.3% threshold.
- Because the net figure is under the limit, the automatic Mecanismo de Equidad Intergeneracional (MEI) that would raise employee and employer social contributions will not be triggered now.
- AIReF reached 13.0% by taking a 14.6% gross pension spending estimate and deducting 1.6 percentage points of GDP for income measures and transfers, and the watchdog says the choice of which items to deduct is methodologically weak.
- The authority disputes aspects of the government’s own projection, which put average pension spending nearer 14.0% of GDP, and it calls for clearer, consistent rules for measuring income offsets and transfers.
- AIReF warns that following the projected path would push public debt much higher by mid‑century—about 123% of GDP by 2050—so it urges redesigning the evaluation framework and policy action to avoid future tax increases, spending cuts, or heavier borrowing.