Overview
- Economists say AI outlays in data centers and chips have kept growth resilient, with Bank of America estimating AI-related capex added about 1.3 percentage points to Q2 GDP.
- Apollo’s Torsten Sløk argues equity-funded AI investment has weakened the usual interest‑rate transmission, allowing capex to surge despite higher borrowing costs.
- Market concentration is extreme, with hyperscalers driving a large share of S&P 500 capex, and Omdia estimating global data‑center spending could reach roughly $657 billion in 2025.
- The Bank of England and IMF flag stretched tech valuations and correction risks, while Gita Gopinath estimates a dot‑com‑scale selloff could erase about $20 trillion in U.S. household wealth.
- Returns look uncertain as MIT research finds about 95% of firms report no near‑term gains from generative AI, even as CB Insights tracks record 2025 funding and analysts debate circular financing and whether current investment is sustainable.