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AI-Led Tech Rally Hits Crossroads as Fed Meets and Big Tech Reports

High oil prices keep pressure on lofty tech valuations.

Overview

  • Stocks edged to fresh record closes Monday in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as the Strait of Hormuz stayed restricted and Brent crude climbed near $108 a barrel.
  • Five of the “Magnificent Seven” — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday — report results this week that will show how AI spending is tracking and whether guidance can support recent gains.
  • The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting Tuesday that is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, with Jerome Powell set to hold what appears to be his final press conference as chair.
  • Nvidia rose to a new high and reclaimed a market value above $5 trillion, and prediction-market traders price roughly a 92% chance it is the largest company by June 30.
  • Market risk is concentrated as the Magnificent Seven now make up about 33.7% of the S&P 500, and hyperscalers’ AI data center plans point to roughly $649 billion in 2026 capital spending, raising return-on-investment questions for index investors.