Overview
- Global managers remain highly bullish but say near-term upside in the first quarter looks harder to achieve.
- Positioning is elevated with a commodity overweight at the highest since May 2022 and an equity overweight at the highest since December 2024.
- Earnings optimism is the strongest since August 2021 even as investors report a new high in perceived corporate overinvestment.
- Long gold is identified as the most crowded trade while record shorts leave investors the most dollar-bearish since 2012.
- The closely watched survey is often read contrarily, with coverage cautioning that extreme dollar bearishness could unwind and that the greenback may rebound in 2026.