Overview
- USDA data show 6.46 million birds affected by H5N1 in the past 30 days, including about 514,000 turkeys, with outbreaks spanning multiple major producing states.
- The U.S. turkey flock is estimated at about 195 million birds in 2025, the smallest in roughly four decades after sustained HPAI pressure and AMPV’s drag on breeder productivity.
- The latest WASDE projects 2025 turkey output at roughly 4.84 billion pounds, about 5% below 2024 and down around 11% from 2023.
- Wholesale prices for frozen whole hens are projected to average $1.32 per pound this year, about 40% higher than last year’s average.
- Industry groups expect frozen stocks to meet holiday demand, while retailers push deals such as Walmart’s $0.97-per-pound Butterball to attract shoppers.