Overview
- The American Heart Association’s scientific statement, published Feb. 25 in Circulation, projects future burden using NHANES 2015–2020, MEPS 2015–2019 and U.S. Census population forecasts through 2050.
- Key risk factors among adult women are forecast to grow sharply: hypertension from 48.6% to 59.1%, diabetes from 14.9% to 25.3% and obesity from 43.9% to 61.2%.
- Clinical conditions are projected to become more common: coronary heart disease 6.9% to 8.2%, heart failure 2.5% to 3.6%, stroke 4.1% to 6.7%, atrial fibrillation 1.6% to 2.3%, with total CVD rising from 10.7% to 14.4%.
- Younger females face faster growth, with nearly one‑third of women ages 22–44 projected to have some form of CVD by 2050 and obesity among girls ages 2–19 rising to 32.0%.
- Disparities are expected to widen, with the highest burdens among Black and American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial women, large hypertension increases forecast for Hispanic women and a steep obesity rise projected for Asian women, while GLP‑1 drug uptake was not modeled and some measures such as smoking, hypercholesterolemia, diet and activity are projected to improve.