Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates about a 61% chance that El Niño forms between May and July, with conditions likely to last through late 2026.
- Leading models point to notable warming, with Met Office guidance near +2°C by September and ECMWF ensembles giving roughly a 50% chance of +2.5°C by October, while NOAA puts a super outcome near 25% by year’s end.
- Experts say a strong event would add a short‑term boost to global heat, increasing the odds that 2027 challenges recent temperature records and briefly exceeds 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warns a rapid shift in the coming weeks could flip conditions toward drought, extreme heat and heightened bushfire danger after a run of flooding.
- In North America’s Pacific Northwest, forecasters highlight a tendency for warmer, drier winters with reduced snowpack and higher wildfire risk, and note that super El Niños are rare with only three on record since 1950.