Overview
- Researchers with World Weather Attribution, speaking Tuesday, warned that 2026 is on track for extraordinary extreme weather as El Niño signs build.
- NOAA estimates a 61% chance that El Niño will form between May and July with several outlooks indicating a roughly one‑in‑four chance of a very strong event.
- Global wildfires have already burned about 150 to 163 million hectares since January, a record start fueled by rapid swings from very wet to very dry conditions.
- Copernicus reported extrapolar sea surface temperatures in April were the second highest on record, signaling widespread ocean heat that can amplify El Niño’s effects.
- Scientists expect drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Asia and wetter risks in parts of the Americas, but they stress spring forecasts carry added uncertainty.