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After Kidal, JNIM Presses Offensive in Mali as Russia’s Africa Corps Pulls Back

The setbacks reveal the limits of Moscow’s security model.

Overview

  • Deaths from raids in central Mali over recent days have climbed above 70, local officials said, in attacks claimed by al‑Qaeda‑linked JNIM that residents say nearby army units failed to stop.
  • JNIM, working with Tuareg separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front, launched a coordinated push on April 25 that recaptured Kidal, struck sites around Bamako, and killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara in a suicide car bombing.
  • Russian troops from the Africa Corps withdrew from Kidal under a negotiated safe passage after encirclement, a retreat seen on video that analysts say damaged Russia’s claim as a reliable security partner.
  • JNIM now holds key northern ground and has threatened to blockade Bamako, urging Malians to reject the junta, which raises risks to supply lines, civilian movement, and access to food and fuel.
  • Security experts argue that years of kill‑capture tactics have failed and urge political talks with JNIM as part of a broader counterinsurgency, warning that delay could deepen state fragility and widen Sahel spillover.