Overview
- A weekly INSA Sonntagstrend poll shows the AfD level with the CDU/CSU at 26 percent, while the SPD falls to 14 percent, its lowest reading since mid-January.
- The Greens hold at 12 percent and the Left at 11 percent, with the FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance each at 3 percent and below Germany’s 5 percent threshold for entering parliament.
- Poll-based seat math leaves the current CDU/CSU–SPD government at about 40 percent and a Red–Red–Green bloc at about 37 percent, both short of the roughly 45 percent needed for a majority.
- A CDU/CSU–AfD pairing would reach about 52 percent but remains off the table under the Union’s categorical refusal, making a CDU/CSU–SPD–Green ‘Kenya’ coalition the most viable path to a majority at 52 percent.
- INSA’s Hermann Binkert notes that the CDU/CSU and SPD together have lost more than one in ten voters since the February 2025 federal election, a shift that could steer coalition talks and voter choices in coming state contests.