Overview
- Three recent polls published July 6 show the AfD around 35 percent while the SPD under Manuela Schwesig trails at roughly 27–28 percent, giving the AfD a clear lead going into the 20 September election.
- Despite the lead, analysts say a sole AfD government remains unlikely because the other parties combined still poll above a majority, so coalition math will determine who controls the Landtag.
- Current surveys project the Greens and the FDP below the five‑percent threshold and out of the parliament, the Left and CDU competing for third place, and the BSW possibly crossing in but with uncertain support.
- Schwesig has cast the contest as a directional choice for the state and is campaigning to close the gap to preserve her minister‑presidency and prevent the AfD from setting the agenda.
- Polls are snapshots with a typical margin of error of about three percentage points, so small shifts in voter support could change seat outcomes and affect policy on local services, social cohesion, and the national picture for the AfD.