Overview
- INSA’s weekly Sunday poll for Bild shows AfD at 26 percent, the Union (CDU/CSU) at 25 percent, SPD at 13 percent, Greens at 12 percent, Left at 11 percent, BSW at 4 percent, FDP at 3 percent, and Others at 6 percent.
- The SPD reading of 13 percent is its weakest level in about two years, placing it behind both the Union and the AfD in vote intent.
- Compared with the prior week, the Union and SPD each slip by one point, the AfD is unchanged, and BSW and Other parties each gain one point.
- The shares translate to 38 percent for the governing CDU/CSU‑SPD bloc and 36 percent for a Red‑Green‑Left option, while a CDU/CSU‑SPD‑Greens “Kenya” coalition would reach roughly 50 percent.
- INSA’s Hermann Binkert says the Union and SPD together have lost more than one in ten voters since the February 2025 election, a drift that, alongside Germany’s 5 percent entry hurdle, tightens the path to stable majorities.