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AEMC Flags 5% Power Price Fall by 2030, Rise by 2035 Without Faster Renewables

The regulator says timing, not technology costs, will determine whether bills rise after 2030.

Overview

  • The commission identifies a critical five-year window to accelerate new wind, solar, batteries and high‑voltage lines to avoid a post‑2030 price uptick and reliability risks.
  • Wholesale electricity cost projections are now about 70% higher on average than the AEMC estimated a year ago.
  • Permitting delays, higher project and transmission costs, and slow connections are curbing the rollout, increasing reliance on ageing coal and costly gas during evening peaks.
  • Households that electrify can cut total energy costs by up to 90%, with average bill savings of roughly $900 a year, but poorly coordinated use of rooftop solar, batteries and EVs could add up to 13% to prices.
  • The government urges faster renewable deployment and electrification, while the Opposition questions near‑term price falls and signals support for keeping some coal plants running longer.