Adobe Faces Q1 Earnings Test After 20% Slide, With Estimates Matching Guidance

Overview

• Adobe reports Q1 FY26 on March 12, with consensus calling for EPS of about $5.87 and revenue near $6.28 billion, reflecting roughly 15.5% and 10% year-over-year growth.
• Management guided Q1 to $6.25–$6.30 billion in revenue and $5.85–$5.90 in adjusted EPS, with full‑year FY26 targets around $26.1 billion revenue and roughly $23.50 adjusted EPS.
• Several firms cut price targets citing sector multiple compression: Citi to $315 with a Hold, Piper Sandler at $330 Neutral, and Barclays to $335 while maintaining Buy/Overweight.
• Barclays models about $460 million in Q1 net new ARR and sees potential for a beat driven by subscription tiering and rising generative credit consumption.
• Citi reports mid‑to‑high‑teens growth in login activity, institutional ownership remains broad with large Vanguard positions, and the average Street target sits near $415 with a Moderate Buy consensus.