Overview
- Scientists report accelerated warming of subsurface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that increases the chance an El Niño will form in 2026.
- NOAA says the pattern could activate as early as June and that a transition to a very strong or “Súper El Niño” is possible between November and January.
- National agencies including Mexico’s Conagua and UNAM and Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional have issued watches or are studying impacts while governments begin preparedness planning.
- A very strong El Niño would push up global temperatures and shift where rain falls, producing heavy rains and flood risk in some regions and severe droughts, heatwaves and higher fire risk in others.
- Households, farmers and power systems face practical threats to water, crops and electricity supply, so officials are discussing measures such as water management changes and extra thermoelectric generation.