Overview
- AARP’s latest estimate puts the provisional 2027 cost‑of‑living adjustment at 3.5 percent while the Senior Citizens League projects about 3.6 percent.
- The Social Security Administration has not announced the official COLA and will calculate it from the average CPI‑W for July, August and September.
- Using the SSA’s June 2026 average retired‑worker benefit of $2,084.40, a 3.5 percent COLA would raise the typical check by about $72.95 a month.
- Any headline COLA increase can be partly or fully offset when Medicare Part B premiums or other deductions rise, cutting beneficiaries’ take‑home gains.
- The forecasts sit inside longer debates over whether CPI‑W reflects senior costs and over Social Security’s long‑term solvency as policymakers weigh reforms.