Overview
- 60 Minutes detailed how online prediction markets have paid out on military events at rates that independent analysts say chance cannot explain.
- Prosecutors charged Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified details of a planned raid to place wagers on Polymarket.
- Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, said nine linked Polymarket accounts made about $2.4 million on U.S. military outcomes with a reported 98% win rate.
- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that long-shot bets with under 35% odds on military outcomes won more often than they lost, which the group called evidence of systemic insider trading.
- LSEG data cited by CBS showed an $800 million position on falling oil prices placed minutes before a presidential post that sent prices down, and investigators are reportedly examining those trades.