Overview
- Counterpoint links the unit decline to surging DRAM and NAND prices and capacity favoring HBM and server DRAM, with the sub-$150 tier taking the biggest hit.
- SoC revenue is still expected to grow at a double-digit rate in 2026 as pricier devices and AI features increase average selling prices and bills of materials.
- MediaTek is projected to retain the largest shipment share at roughly 34% in 2026, while Qualcomm and Apple post modest share slippage as the market skews premium.
- Vendors are shifting from 3nm to 2nm nodes in 2026, with Samsung already announcing its first 2nm Exynos 2600 smartphone chip.
- Brands building in-house silicon—such as Google with Tensor for Pixel, plus Samsung, Huawei and Xiaomi—are judged better positioned than makers focused on entry-level 4G/5G devices.